Naval Modernization in the South China Sea: Is it an arms race?

Naval Modernization in the South China Sea: Is it an arms race?

Principal speaker

Richard Bitzinger

There is increasingly concern that Southeast Asia in the midst of a regional arms race. Growing antagonisms over territorial and EEZ (exclusive economic zones) claims in the South China Sea, along with an increasingly assertive Chinese military presence in the region, has impelled many countries in the region to begin expanding their militaries. Consequently, many countries in the region have for the past decade been on a veritable “shopping spree” for advanced conventional weapons – particularly naval systems, such as submarines and large surface combatants. This been enabled by a corresponding increase in military spending. However, these acquisitions to not necessarily fit the model of an “arms race,” as laid out in prevailing theory – that is, mutually adversarial relationships, explicit tit-for-tat arms acquisitions, the intention of using arming in order seek dominance over other regional players, etc. Additionally, the number of actual numbers of arms being acquired are, for the most part, relatively small – certainly too small to have much of an impact on Chinese behavior. That said, the regional re-arming process is significant in that the types of arms being acquired goes beyond the mere modernization of regional militaries, and, as such could greatly alter the nature and character of regional conflict, should it occur. In addition, this process of arming, while perhaps not an “arms race” per se, could still contribute to a classic “security dilemma.” Consequently, such arming could still be potentially destabilizing to regional security in the long run.

Richard A. Bitzinger is a Senior Fellow with the Military Transformations Program at the S.Rajaratnam School of International Studies, where his work focuses on security and defense issues relating to the Asia-Pacific region, including military modernization and force transformation, regional defense industries and local armaments production, and weapons proliferation. Mr. Bitzinger has written several monographs and book chapters, and his articles have appeared in such journals as International Security, Orbis, China Quarterly, and Survival. He is the author of Towards a Brave New Arms Industry? (Oxford University Press, 2003), “Come the Revolution: Transforming the Asia-Pacific’s Militaries,” Naval War College Review (Fall 2005), Transforming the U.S. Military: Implications for the Asia-Pacific (ASPI, December 2006), and “Military Modernization in the Asia-Pacific: Assessing New Capabilities,” Asia’s Rising Power (NBR, 2010). He is also the editor of The Modern Defence Industry: Political, Economic and Technological Issues (Praeger, 2009). Mr. Bitzinger was previously an Associate Professor with the Asia-Pacific Center for Security Studies (APCSS), Honolulu, Hawaii, and has also worked for the RAND Corporation, the Center for Strategic and Budgetary Affairs, and the U.S. Government. In 1999-2000, he was a Senior Fellow with the Atlantic Council of the United States.

  • Wednesday 17 April 2013
  • N16 Meeting Room 1.44
  • Nathan campus
  • 11:00 – 12:30pm

To RSVP please contact Natasha Vary on (07) 3735 5322 or n.vary@griffith.edu.au by 5.00pm Friday 12 April 2013.
 


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