Principal speaker
Associate Professor Michael Cohen
As Iran and North Korea push closer to developing nuclear weapons, the United States and its allies in the Persian Gulf and East Asia face the challenge of realising regional objectives in the face of new nuclear powers. A key question here is the effect that nuclear proliferation will have on the conflict propensity of these weak revisionist states. The historical record shows that nuclear proliferation often prevents conflict but sometimes causes it. This presents a puzzle: when does nuclear proliferation cause peace? I use statistical, experimental and historical evidence to support the argument that nuclear proliferation is dangerous when leaders learn that nuclear compellence is safe and safe when they learn that it is dangerous. I argue that this suggests counterintuitive policy prescriptions for the United States and its allies in engaging such new nuclear powers. If Iranian or North Korean leaders cause a nuclear crisis where they experience fear of imminent nuclear war, the historical record suggests that ensuring that they believe that they have some control over the crisis will make nuclear proliferation cause peace.
Michael D. Cohen is an Assistant Professor in the Department of Political Science at the University of Southern Denmark. His research has been published in the journal International Security and a Stanford University Press edited volume, and has been funded by the Simons Foundation, the Lyndon Baines Johnson Foundation, and numerous fellowships from the University of British Columbia and the University of Southern Denmark. He is currently completing a book manuscript titled When Nuclear Proliferation Causes Peace and also working on a project addressing the credibility of U.S. deterrence policies in Asia and Europe (with Andrew O'Neil).
Event categories
RSVP
RSVP on or before Wednesday 15 May 2013 , by email n.vary@griffith.edu.au , or by phone 37354252
Event contact details
- Natasha Vary
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- (07) 3735 5322