APCSE Open Lecture: Can the fall of civilisation be avoided?

APCSE Open Lecture: Can the fall of civilisation be avoided?

Principal speaker

Dr Richard A. Slaughter

Much has been published in recent years on the fact that humanity is in the process of overshooting global limits in a number of areas and looks set to do so in several others during the present century. This evolving body of work has stimulated growing speculation that some sort of civilisational collapse could be immanent. Understandably enough, such concerns can readily appear over-stated and, as such, are commonly dismissed. The evidence for such a view is, however, less easily dismissed and raises major questions about the very basis of our existing, oil and growth-addicted, social order.

The prospect of collapse not only implies an end to three centuries of progress, growth and wealth accumulation it also suggests that we could be entering a period of widespread disruptions and conflicts over many issues, especially diminishing resources of energy, food and raw materials. Hence a number of observers have turned their attention to understanding how this ‘civilisational challenge’ can be addressed. Such work is sometimes characterised by terms such as ‘powerdown’, ‘degrowth’, ‘transition towns’ and the like. In this lecture, Dr Slaughter suggests that we move away from a ‘collapse’ narrative toward one based on notions of ‘descent.’ A conscious process of ‘moderated descent’ is preferable to a broader ‘crash’ that has extreme costs and unknowable consequences.

Dr. Richard A. Slaughter is a writer, practitioner and innovator in futures studies and applied foresight. He has been based in Australia since the late 1980s. During 1999-2004 he was Foundation Professor of Foresight at the Australian Foresight Institute, Swinburne University, Melbourne. During 2001-2005 he was President of the World Futures Studies Federation. He is the author or editor of some 20 books and many papers on a variety of futures topics and a Board member of several publications. He has won many accolades, including three awards for ‘Most Important Futures Works’, and ‘the best all-time Futurists’. His other activities include photography, art and grandchildren. Please find more information, including latest works, at: www.foresightinternational.com.au or richardslaughter.com.au

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